Q4 GDP Growth Estimated at 10.7 Percent

China's gross domestic product (GDP) may have grown 10.7 percent year-on-year in the final quarter of 2009, according to a Century Weekly survey of 18 economists from selected financial institutions and universities. The figure is much higher than 8.9 percent in the third quarter.

Growth forecasts for the quarter ranged from 10.0 to 11.5 percent, and all 18 economists estimated that the world's third-largest economy may have grown by no less than 10 percent in the period, citing a low base in the final quarter of 2008 due to the fast contraction, and the accelerated recovery of the real economy.

Last December, China's exports increased for the first time in 13 months, with a growth rate beyond market expectations.

In the first three quarters of last year, China's GDP increased 7.7 percent year-on-year, with investment contributing 7.3 percent points. Consumption and exports contributed 4 percentage points and minus 3.6 percentage points respectively.

Economists predicted that the overall growth in 2009 may be 8.7 percent. The National Bureau of Statistics will release the official GDP figures of the last quarter and the entire year of 2009 January 21.

Wang Tao, an economist with UBS Securities, said that China's economic growth in 2010 will be driven by net exports, with robust domestic consumption and accelerated fixed-asset investment growth. He predicted that the growth rate of China's GDP would be 9 percent or higher in 2010.

Fast economic recovery has paved the way for the exit of the stimulus policy. On January 12, the People's Bank of China (PBOC), the country's central bank, increased the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percent points to 16 percent. Economists predicted that monetary policy may be tightened earlier than expected, and the PBOC interest increase may occur halfway through 2010.

Full Article in Chinese: http://economy.caing.com/2010-01-18/100108999.html　

Translated by GC