By Andy Xie
01.19.2011 16:24
Between a Crutch and Walking Stick
Why the dollar has got to go as the world's reserve currency – and how the euro will replace it
China and Japan are supporting the euro zone by purchasing government bonds
that the market shuns today. China and Japan have US$ 4 trillion in foreign
exchange reserves and are capable of bridging liquidity problems that some euro
zone economies are facing.
What China and Japan can do is to stop market panic from leading some
otherwise viable economies down a vicious spiral of rising interest rates,
rising debt burdens and bankruptcy. Economies that are not viable in the first
place shouldn't be helped.
China and Japan's actions help themselves in two ways. First, the euro is the
only alternative to the dollar for global trade, commodity pricing and storing
foreign exchange reserves. If the euro falls apart, the U.S. Federal Reserve
will be further emboldened to pursue inflation to decrease the U.S.'s leverage
or indebtedness at the expense of dollar holders. China and Japan hold vast
dollar assets.
Second, Europe is the largest trading partner for China and the third largest
for Japan. It is in both economies' interest for Europe to avoid a vicious cycle
and remain a healthy trading partner.
Self-fulfilling Cycle
The watchword for monitoring developed economies is debt and, for developing
economies, inflation. The market is panicking over the sovereign debt situation
in some euro zone economies and is demanding high interest rates for rolling
over their debts or providing new money for financing their deficits. When the
interest rates rise above some level, an otherwise healthy debtor can go
bankrupt. This element of self-fulfilling prophecy is a major force in
speculative attack against a company or country.
China recently pledged to support debt issuances by Spain and Portugal. Japan
has committed to purchasing one fifth of the debt issuance by the European
Financial Stability Facility ("EFSF"). China's actions were instrumental in the
successful debt issuances by Spain and Portugal. Japan is taking risk behind the
EFSF that is guaranteed by strong economies like Germany and France. This is not
enough. China and Japan should work closely together in their European Project.
They have common interests.
If China and Japan stick together, they can play a critical role in
preventing the euro zone from suffering unnecessary economic hardship due to
financial market panic and, by extension, supporting the euro as an alternative
reserve currency to the dollar.