The Titanic Strategy

The contemporary history of Chinese emigrants is full of dramatic change. From 1986 to 2011, it saw six major changes, each of which have reflected the political situation in China.

In the early days of the reform and opening up period, before1989, large numbers of Chinese youth tried to go to the West to study and experience life, triggering a wave of studying and work. Most went to study in America, while those going to Japan, Australia and Canada mostly went in the name of study but worked to earn money.

By the mid-1990s, the early generation of young people who went to the West, had mostly obtained green cards, completed identity changes, saved money and started inviting their families and relatives to join them, setting off a wave of emigration among the middle-aged and elderly. The intrinsic goal of this wave to was to enjoy the social benefits of the country of immigration.

In the early 2000s, Chinese officials, businessmen and the upper middle class were eager to send their sons and daughters abroad to study. But compared with the first stage, the age of those studying abroad generally declined, and many of them were in secondary school. Chinese elementary school students could even be seen on the streets of Europe. One important reason for the phenomenon was the establishment of the college entrance exam-oriented education system. Primary and secondary school students went abroad to study to avoid the educational crisis brought on by this sort of abnormal educational system.
Such a wave of study has now extended to Hong Kong and Singapore, which based on their Chinese cultural backgrounds and bilingual educational systems, became sought after by eager parents.

Another important change in the 21st century was the emigration of government officials. The families of officials began carrying large sums of money, immigrated to America, Australia, Canada and other countries through the channel of business investment immigration. The phrase "mistress city" even appeared in Canada. And this was closely related to the job crisis set off by official corruption. This created the strange situation of "one person taking the blame, the entire family fleeing."

With the imprisonment of the businessman Huang Guangyu as a precursor, "rumors" of the state economy advancing at the expense of the private economy began to fly in 2009. The "commercial crisis" prompted some billionaires to transfer assets abroad. On the other hand, as a result of the economic crisis, other countries lowered the threshold for business immigration to attract Chinese capital. For example, beginning in August, America lowered the business immigration condition to US$ 500,000, with funds to be used for loans to selectable projects. While the authorities did not provide any guarantee and also required the creation of at least ten jobs, the policy attracted a large number of Chinese businessmen. This tide of emigration made the long-running business emigration movement form an unprecedented climax, which led to soaring housing prices and social disorder in Australia and Canada. The Canadian government ultimately had to set an annual quota of 700 people in order to deter an "invasion" of Chinese immigration.

The sixth and latest stage began in 2010. With the changing domestic political landscape, the middle class and intellectuals have also accelerated the pace of emigration. A "countdown mentality" even emerged among intellectual groups. This mentality spread like the flu, adding to the wave of panic of seeking emigration.

The six changes in the history of Chinese emigrants form an intricate plot, with ups and downs like a brilliant drama. They include five interesting trends: the shift from emigration for study or knowledge to the fields of economics and politics; the shift from individual emigrants to families and groups; the shift from personal career development of seeking study or employment to fleeing in order to avoid harm; the shift in destinations from America, Australia, Canada and Japan to everywhere around the world; the shift from going abroad to find work and earn money to taking money out of China to consume and lead a life of pleasure; the shift from a single reason for emigration (such as education) to comprehensive reasons (education, economy, culture, politics).

The accelerated processes of all these forms of emigration are Chinese-style expressions of the story of the Titanic. Chinese officials play the role of the captain. They study and weigh the situation, prearranging the evacuation of their families. They are the source of the abandon-ship strategy. The first-class passengers represent the upper elite, who are the first to receive a warning and pull out in advance. They are the group to benefit most from the abandon-ship strategy. The majority of the passengers indulging the luxurious dance hall are unaware of the ship's crisis. They live an intoxicated dream, continuing to immerse themselves in revelry. After the crisis breaks out, the lower class passengers, a metaphor for the middle and lower classes of Chinese society, have nowhere to flee as the escape channels have been locked. Only a small number are able to struggle, escape,  and survive.

This symbolism can only be used to describe the end-of-the-world attitude of some official-businessmen and is not a prediction of China's future. Outward migration is a laudable policy of openness, and it is necessary to protect its continuity in the long-term to provide diverse choices in life. But the "Titanic strategy" of Chinese officials and businessmen -- on the one hand running the political economy from a forward position and continuing to seek power and profit for themselves, and on the other hand prearranging an evacuation route -- will profoundly change the direction of the operation of Chinese history. This strategy not only makes official-businessmen behave more unscrupulously and irresponsibly in running the country's affairs, but it also leads to a spiritual abyss of pessimism among the diverse and confused masses, which then shakes the foundations of society, eventually evolving into a true nation-state tragedy. 

The author is a professor at Shanghai Tongji University Institute of Cultural Criticism.

（This article was originally published in the December 26, 2011 edition of Caixin Magazine）