The March jobs data showed that the U.S. economy created just 120,000 jobs in the month. This was markedly slower than the 250,000 average for the prior three months. Suddenly commentators began to worry about the strength of the recovery and wonder whether the unemployment rate would continue to dip in the months ahead.

In fact the March numbers should not have come as big surprise to anyone. The problem here is simply one of fickle forecasters who are too influenced by the most recent reports and repeatedly fail to put economic data in a larger context.