Dealing with a Double Whammy
By most measures China's economy has slowed quickly since the last quarter of
2011. Electricity production, the National Bureau of Statistics reports, grew
1.7 percent in April and May from last year. Over the past decade the annual
growth rate was 12 percent. Also in April and May, the railroad ton-kilometer
figure grew by 1.3 percent compared to the same months last year, down from the
6 percent growth seen from 2005 to 2011.
Due to the resulting
decline in commodity prices, the inflation situation has improved, which lessens
pressure on the household sector. At the same time, the slowdown has not caused
widespread reduction in employment. There may be some impact on construction
jobs already, but, as the labor market was very tight before the slowdown, the
employment picture remains healthy.
There are no widespread
bankruptcies. The main reason for this is government-owned banks not foreclosing
on delinquent businesses. Of course, banks may have more bad assets down the
road, which is the cost for achieving a soft landing.
State-owned
enterprises reported 11 percent growth in sales but 10 percent decline in
profits in the first five months. Private enterprises may have fared worse. It
appears that the slowdown has impacted government revenue and business profits
rather than labor income.
Asset markets have fared badly this year.
The stock market is depressed. Despite some pickup in the last two months, the
property market is depressed and may remain so for several years. As the
slowdown disproportionately hits business profits, asset prices will likely
remain depressed.
Cutting Taxes
- Great Wall Motor Hit Cruise Control in 2012
- In Thursday's Papers: Guangdong Finds 31 Batches of Tainted Rice, No One Held Accountable for Bad Convictions
- What Xi's Travel Itinerary Says about China's Foreign Policy
- Closer Look: Can an Online Price Index Replace CPI?
- Alibaba Subsidiary Lets SMEs Hedge against Yuan Fluctuations
- JF-17s Escort Li
- Problems Listed in Audit Reports Were Seen Before
- Progress on SOEs Means Answering Political Questions
- Risks in Financing Platforms Pose a Challenge, CBRC Says
- Lean In
- Sign up to receive our free daily newsletter
- Too Big To Fail Is Bigger than Ever
- Why Foxconn's Switch to Robots Hasn't Been Automatic
- Marriage, Sex and Character
- Playing the Long Game
- Investment Company Asks: Can We Legally Short Sell?
- The Real Reason the Stock Market Is Slumping
- Teams to Draft Reform Topics for Party Congress Set up
- Is China Welcome in the Arctic?
- Errors of Aggression Catch up with Underwriter
- Graphics: Defining the Chinese Dream


































