As we enter the last two week s of the presidential race, the country looks to be facing its third close finish this century. While President Barack Obama is still the favorite to be re-elected, Mitt Romney has a very real chance of winning. The weak economy is undoubtedly the major reason.

Incumbent presidents usually get re-elected. The three exceptions in the last 80 years were Lyndon Johnson, Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush. The first was pushed out of office because of hostility to the Vietnam War. At the time, we had 500,000 soldiers involved in the war. Given the relative size of the country, this was more than ten times the scale of the war in Afghanistan today.