Caixin OnlineOpinionMagazine Columnist谢国忠 Andy Xie 2013: The Year Stagnation Continued
01.08.2013 19:13

2013: The Year Stagnation Continued

Both developed and emerging economies will see lower growth this year, a trend we may as well get used to
By Andy Xie

Historic buildings along the western bank of the Huangpu River lit up in a countdown to 2013

Between 2009 and 2011, the emerging economies, especially the BRICs, kept growing following a brief crash in 2008. Many pundits interpreted it as a sign of decoupling. Emerging economies, due to their low base, tend to grow faster than the developed ones. The issue is by how much. During the 2009-11 period, they experienced high inflation, debt growing faster than income, and asset bubbles, not signs of sustainability. The growth spurt was due to a hot money bubble rather than a natural state of affairs. This bubble isn't blowing up like in 1997 because the big central banks are still loosening monetary policy. Hence, this bubble could deflate gradually.

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